AI Demand Drives Taiwan's Fastest Export Growth in Sixteen Years

2026-02-09 semicon

Taipei, Monday 9 February 2026
Driven by a staggering 151.8% surge in US demand, Taiwan’s exports recorded their fastest growth in sixteen years, signalling robust momentum for the global AI semiconductor sector.

Unprecedented Export Momentum

Data released by Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance on Monday, 9 February 2026, reveals a historic expansion in the island’s trade performance. Exports for January reached a monthly record by value of $65.77 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.9% [1]. This surge, the fastest monthly growth rate recorded in 16 years, significantly outperformed the 51.9% forecast by analysts and extended a growth streak to 27 consecutive months [1]. The expansion was heavily skewed towards the United States; exports to the US skyrocketed by 151.8% to $21.28 billion, whereas shipments to China saw a more moderate increase of 49.6% [1][3]. Electronic components, the backbone of the AI hardware revolution, accounted for a substantial portion of this volume, rising 59.8% to a record $22.36 billion [1].

CapEx Surge Signals Demand for European Equipment

While export figures dominate the headlines, the import data offers a more nuanced signal for the global semiconductor value chain, particularly for the Benelux ecosystem. Taiwan’s imports rose by 63.6% in January to $46.87 billion, shattering economists’ forecasts of a 40.85% increase [1][3]. This dramatic rise in imports—resulting in a trade surplus of 18.9 billion—indicates a massive ramp-up in capital expenditure by Taiwanese foundries preparing for sustained AI demand [1]. For European equipment manufacturers, this is a critical leading indicator. High import volumes in Taiwan typically correlate with increased deliveries of advanced lithography and deposition tools, sectors dominated by Netherlands-based industry leaders like ASML and ASM [GPT]. This suggests that the drive for supply chain resilience and the thirst for AI computing power are translating directly into robust order books for European technology providers.

Strategic Autonomy and the ‘Impossible’ Shift

Despite the booming trade figures, tension persists regarding the geographical distribution of semiconductor manufacturing, a key concern for Western strategic autonomy. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has articulated a goal for the US to secure a 40% market share in leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing [4]. However, in an interview broadcast late Sunday, Taiwan’s Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun firmly rejected the feasibility of such a relocation, stating she had made it clear to Washington that moving 40% of the island’s capacity is “impossible” [4]. Cheng emphasised that while Taiwanese firms, including TSMC—currently investing $165 billion in Arizona—will expand internationally, the core ecosystem built over decades cannot be uprooted [4].

Economic Outlook and Tariff Adjustments

The diplomatic friction has not stifled economic cooperation; Washington agreed in January 2026 to lower tariffs on Taiwanese exports from 20% to 15% as part of a broader investment deal [1]. This trade facilitation is expected to support continued growth following a stellar 2025, where Taiwan’s economy expanded by 8.63%, its strongest performance in 15 years [5]. Looking ahead, the Ministry of Finance maintains a bullish outlook, forecasting that exports for February will rise between 20% and 27% year-on-year, despite the seasonal impact of the Lunar New Year [1].

Sources & Ecosystem Partners

Artificial Intelligence Semiconductors