US Digital Asset Law Stalls: Plummeting Approval Odds Disrupt European Tech Expansion

2026-05-25 digital

Amsterdam, Monday 25 May 2026
US CLARITY Act approval odds have unexpectedly plummeted from 75% to 50% in just a week, forcing Benelux tech founders to urgently recalibrate their international expansion strategies.

The Legislative Bottleneck

On 23 May 2026, prediction market Kalshi reported that the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing before 2027 had fallen to 50%, down from nearly 75% the previous week [1][2]. This represents a -33.333 per cent decline in market confidence regarding the bill’s medium-term viability [1][2]. Short-term prospects appear even bleaker, with the probability of approval before July 2026 sitting at just 14%, and 37% for August 2026 [1][2]. This pessimistic shift occurred despite the Senate Banking Committee passing the bill by a 15 to 9 vote during a markup session on 14 May 2026 [1][2] [alert! ‘Source 3 states the Senate Banking Committee voted to advance the Act on 16 May 2026, creating a minor chronological discrepancy regarding the exact committee vote date’].

Executive Manoeuvres Amidst Gridlock

While the legislative branch stalls, the executive branch is attempting to force progress. On 20 May 2026, President Donald Trump signed two executive orders aimed at integrating digital assets into federal payment systems and strengthening Bank Secrecy Act regulations [3]. The following day, the Federal Reserve Board published an updated proposal for a “skinny” master account, initially drafted in December 2025, which details how fintech and cryptocurrency firms can access federal payment networks without possessing a full bank charter [3]. These initiatives are designed to identify and remove rules that currently hinder fintech companies from collaborating with regulated entities [3].

European Startups and the Tokenised Future

For Benelux venture capitalists and tech founders, navigating this American regulatory maze is critical, as the pre-IPO market is now expanding faster than traditional stock exchanges [6]. Tokenisation and decentralised exchanges are poised to completely alter how company equity is traded, making the digitalisation of private markets an urgent priority for European software-as-a-service (SaaS) and cybersecurity firms seeking scale [6]. As software scalability and artificial intelligence become deeply embedded in financial services, industry leaders like Joe Vollono, Chief Commercial Officer of STBL, predict that AI-driven treasury, lending, and collateral tools will form the next major infrastructure wave [3].

Sources & Ecosystem Partners

Venture capital Cryptocurrency regulation